Capital Allocation Trends At NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) Aren't Ideal

To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. To calculate this metric for NVIDIA, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.12 = US$4.5b ÷ (US$44b - US$7.3b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to April 2023).

Thus, NVIDIA has an ROCE of 12%. That's a pretty standard return and it's in line with the industry average of 12%.

See our latest analysis for NVIDIA

Above you can see how the current ROCE for NVIDIA compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

How Are Returns Trending?

When we looked at the ROCE trend at NVIDIA, we didn't gain much confidence. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 38% over the last five years. And considering revenue has dropped while employing more capital, we'd be cautious. If this were to continue, you might be looking at a company that is trying to reinvest for growth but is actually losing market share since sales haven't increased.

The Key Takeaway

We're a bit apprehensive about NVIDIA because despite more capital being deployed in the business, returns on that capital and sales have both fallen. The market must be rosy on the stock's future because even though the underlying trends aren't too encouraging, the stock has soared 556%. In any case, the current underlying trends don't bode well for long term performance so unless they reverse, we'd start looking elsewhere.

Like most companies, NVIDIA does come with some risks, and we've found 2 warning signs that you should be aware of.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

What are the risks and opportunities for NVIDIA?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.