Why Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) Shaky Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems
Oct 30
U.S. Auto Industry Analysis
UpdatedOct 30, 2023
DataAggregated Company Financials
Companies48
- 7D-2.6%
- 3M-23.8%
- 1Y-10.6%
- YTD54.8%
Over the last 7 days, the Auto industry has dropped 2.6%, driven by Tesla declining 7.0%. Meanwhile, Li Auto actually outperformed within the industry, gaining 8.2% in the last week. The industry has fallen 11% in the last year. As for the next few years, earnings are expected to grow by 20% per annum.
Industry Valuation and Performance
Has the U.S. Auto Industry valuation changed over the past few years?
| Date | Market Cap | Revenue | Earnings | PE | Absolute PE | PS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 31 Oct 2023 | US$892.8b | US$492.8b | US$13.1b | 10x | 68.4x | 1.8x |
| Thu, 28 Sep 2023 | US$1.0t | US$484.7b | US$12.8b | 12.7x | 80.3x | 2.1x |
| Sat, 26 Aug 2023 | US$1.0t | US$486.3b | US$13.5b | 10.5x | 76.4x | 2.1x |
| Mon, 24 Jul 2023 | US$1.1t | US$469.5b | US$11.4b | 10.4x | 97.9x | 2.4x |
| Wed, 21 Jun 2023 | US$1.1t | US$462.0b | US$11.1b | 8.9x | 102.9x | 2.5x |
| Fri, 19 May 2023 | US$798.7b | US$464.4b | US$11.5b | 5.9x | 69.8x | 1.7x |
| Sun, 16 Apr 2023 | US$827.8b | US$446.9b | US$7.1b | 6.5x | 117.2x | 1.9x |
| Tue, 14 Mar 2023 | US$785.4b | US$447.7b | US$7.2b | 7.6x | 109.3x | 1.8x |
| Thu, 09 Feb 2023 | US$922.3b | US$448.7b | US$6.4b | 9.7x | 143.4x | 2.1x |
| Sat, 07 Jan 2023 | US$603.5b | US$425.7b | US$16.4b | 7.4x | 36.9x | 1.4x |
| Mon, 05 Dec 2022 | US$906.1b | US$426.0b | US$16.8b | 8.1x | 53.8x | 2.1x |
| Wed, 02 Nov 2022 | US$975.0b | US$421.6b | US$17.9b | 7.7x | 54.4x | 2.3x |
| Fri, 30 Sep 2022 | US$1.1t | US$394.9b | US$18.0b | 7.3x | 61x | 2.8x |
| Sun, 28 Aug 2022 | US$1.2t | US$396.4b | US$17.3b | 8.4x | 71.3x | 3.1x |
| Tue, 26 Jul 2022 | US$1.2t | US$374.8b | US$18.0b | 8.5x | 64.8x | 3.1x |
| Thu, 23 Jun 2022 | US$1.0t | US$373.9b | US$18.6b | 13.7x | 55.8x | 2.8x |
| Sat, 21 May 2022 | US$973.0b | US$371.3b | US$18.2b | 12.9x | 53.5x | 2.6x |
| Mon, 18 Apr 2022 | US$1.4t | US$360.2b | US$21.7b | 8.9x | 62.5x | 3.8x |
| Wed, 16 Mar 2022 | US$1.1t | US$358.5b | US$21.8b | 7.6x | 52.4x | 3.2x |
| Fri, 11 Feb 2022 | US$1.4t | US$356.5b | US$24.8b | 10.1x | 54.7x | 3.8x |
| Sun, 09 Jan 2022 | US$1.6t | US$351.2b | US$8.7b | 18.2x | 179.8x | 4.4x |
| Tue, 07 Dec 2021 | US$1.6t | US$349.4b | US$9.5b | 22.8x | 164.8x | 4.5x |
| Thu, 04 Nov 2021 | US$1.7t | US$347.2b | US$11.8b | 26x | 140.5x | 4.8x |
| Sat, 02 Oct 2021 | US$1.1t | US$352.0b | US$12.6b | 16.5x | 89.7x | 3.2x |
| Mon, 30 Aug 2021 | US$1.1t | US$350.8b | US$12.5b | 15.2x | 86.6x | 3.1x |
| Tue, 06 Jul 2021 | US$1.0t | US$350.8b | US$16.1b | 17.3x | 64.3x | 3x |
| Fri, 09 Apr 2021 | US$963.8b | US$314.7b | US$11.4b | 25.7x | 84.7x | 3.1x |
| Thu, 31 Dec 2020 | US$968.4b | US$305.8b | US$4.7b | 45.6x | 205.1x | 3.2x |
Price to Earnings Ratio
230x
Current Industry PE
- Investors are pessimistic on the American Auto industry, indicating that they anticipate long term growth rates will be lower than they have historically.
- The industry is trading at a PE ratio of 68.4x which is lower than its 3-year average PE of 93.5x.
- The 3-year average PS ratio of 2.9x is higher than the industry's current PS ratio of 1.8x.
Past Earnings Growth
- The earnings for companies in the Auto industry have grown 74% per year over the last three years.
- Revenues for these companies have grown 18% per year.
- This means that more sales are being generated by these companies overall, and subsequently their profits are increasing too.
Industry Trends
Which industries have driven the changes within the U.S. Consumer Discretionary industry?
| US Market | -2.42% | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -0.39% | |
| Auto | -2.63% | |
| Automobile Manufacturers | -2.61% | |
| Motorcycle Manufacturers | -5.76% | |
Industry PE
- Investors are most optimistic about the Automobile Manufacturers industry even though it's trading below its 3-year average PE ratio of 105x.
- Analysts are expecting annual earnings growth of 20.2%, which is higher than its past year's earnings decline of 17.6% per year.
- Investors are most pessimistic about the Motorcycle Manufacturers industry, which is trading below its 3-year average of 105x.
Forecasted Growth
- Analysts are most optimistic on the Automobile Manufacturers industry, expecting annual earnings growth of 20% over the next 5 years.
- This is better than its past earnings decline of 18% per year.
- In contrast, the Motorcycle Manufacturers industry is expected to see its earnings growth to stay flat over the next few years.
Top Stock Gainers and Losers
Which companies have driven the market over the last 7 days?
| Company | Last Price | 7D | 1Y | Valuation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LI Li Auto | US$35.12 | 8.2% +US$2.7b | 157.9% | PE139.9x | |
| VFS VinFast Auto | US$5.33 | 11.0% +US$1.2b | -46.1% | PS13.5x | |
| XPEV XPeng | US$14.91 | 7.2% +US$862.8m | 125.2% | PS4.5x | |
| LVWR LiveWire Group | US$10.31 | 26.5% +US$437.5m | 25.3% | PS65x | |
| NWTN NWTN | US$9.25 | 5.4% +US$134.5m | -10.7% | PB9.4x |
